Monsoon prepares to exit North-West as thunderstorms prowl South India

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, SEPT 25:  

The low-pressure area over Uttar Pradesh responsible for sustaining the late monsoon rains has weakened this morning and is expected to die out soon.

This could help prepare the ground for the monsoon to start withdrawing from the border areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat from Thursday, almost a month behind schedule.

VIGOROUS MONSOON IN NORTH

A formal declaration from the India Met Department (IMD) would come only after it assesses that necessary conditions, including tapering of any residual rain over the region and filtering in of dry air, are met.

But the last full day of activity saw the ‘low’ sustaining a vigorous monsoon over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh yesterday.

The IMD has also forecast that maximum (day) temperatures over North-West India would rise by two- to three degrees Celsius over the next two days.

Available indications suggest that the withdrawal process could still run into hurdles from rains over the East Coast and Peninsular India as the monsoon wags its tail during the week and early next.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS

A couple of cyclonic circulations (not amounting to low-pressure area) in the Bay of Bengal and a helpful ‘shear zone’ of monsoon turbulence would ensure that these regions stay variously wet.

A cyclonic circulation each is hovering over the North Andaman Sea (South-East Bay) and the North-West Bay, while the shear zone lies extended from the circulation in the North Andaman Sea to the Lakshadweep Islands.

The shear zone cuts through the South Bay of Bengal, North Tamil Nadu and Kerala, indicating the possibility of unstable weather (rain or thundery weather) developing across this corridor in South Peninsula.

The IMD said thunderstorms were reported from coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, coastal and interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Odisha and Chhattisgarh until early this morning.

THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Thunderstorms have been forecast until tomorrow morning for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Heavy rain is forecast for south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Rayalaseema, before it spreads out to Goa and South Konkan over the next few days.

This morning’s satellite pictures showed cloud cover spreading out over the South-East coast from Rajahmundry, Eluru, Kakinada, Bhimavaram, Machilipatnam, Ongole and Nellore in coastal Andhra Pradesh to adjoining Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka.

(This article was published on September 25, 2017)

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